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Climate Change Impact on Water Resource of Marshyangdi River Basin, Nepal
shanta sharma, Dr. Moti Lal Ghimire, Dr. Vishnu Prasad Pandey

Last modified: 2017-08-29

Abstract


Abstract

Climate change Impact on hydrology is major issue that need to be addressed for sustainable water resource management. This study aims to quantitatively assess the impact of climate change on water resource of Marshyangdi basin in Nepal.  Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological modeling with several modifications to reflect unique watershed characteristics. Result indicated increase in both maximum and minimum temperature and decrease in precipitation in past. In Projection it is found that maximum temperature will increase by 1°C, 1.38°C, 2.43°C under RCP 4.5 and by 1.35°C, 2.66°C and 3.87°C under RCP 8.5 in near, mid and far future respectively in comparison to 26.85°C in baseline period (1980-2005). Annual average precipitation was projected to decrease under both scenarios by 2.7% under RCP 4.5 and by 4.2% under RCP 8.5 till the end of the century. The annual discharge was projected to increase by 0.5% in near future and decrease by 1.9% and 1.4% in mid and far future respectively. Result using ACCESS shows seasonal precipitation has increased in wet season and decreased in dry season compared to baseline period. -transpiration is projected to decrease by 1.6%, percolation by 3.4% whereas water yield is projected to increase by 0.8% till far future. Specifically, ground water flow is found to be decreasing by 19% throughout the period due to predicted rainfall and temperature change by 2100, which may have serious implication on ground water availability in future.

 

Key Words: Climate Change, SWAT, Future climate trend, Water availability

 


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